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On the KopyKat Intelligence(c)

池田光穂

My Wiki says, "Generative Pre-trained Transformer 3 (GPT-3) is an autoregressive language model that uses deep learning to produce human-like text. It is the third-generation language prediction model in the GPT-n series created by OpenAI, a for-profit San Francisco-based artificial intelligence research laboratory.[Shead, Sam (July 23, 2020). "Why everyone is talking about the A.I. text generator released by an Elon Musk-backed lab". CNBC. Retrieved July 31, 2020. Four preprints were released between May 28 and July 22, 2020.] GPT-3's full version has a capacity of 175 billion machine learning parameters. GPT-3, which was introduced in May 2020, and is in beta testing as of July 2020,[Bussler, Frederik (July 21, 2020). "Will GPT-3 Kill Coding?". Towards Data Science. Retrieved August 1, 2020.] is part of a trend in natural language processing (NLP) systems of pre-trained language representations.[Language Models are Few-Shot Learners] Prior to the release of GPT-3, the largest language model was Microsoft's Turing NLG, introduced in February 2020, with a capacity of 17 billion parameters or less than 10 percent compared to GPT-3. The quality of the text generated by GPT-3 is so high that it is difficult to distinguish from that written by a human, which has both benefits and risks.[Sagar, Ram (June 3, 2020). "OpenAI Releases GPT-3, The Largest Model So Far". Analytics India Magazine. Retrieved July 31, 2020.] Thirty-one OpenAI researchers and engineers presented the original May 28, 2020 paper introducing GPT-3. In their paper, they warned of GPT-3's potential dangers and called for research to mitigate risk.[1]:34 David Chalmers, an Australian philosopher, described GPT-3 as "one of the most interesting and important AI systems ever produced."[Chalmers, David (July 30, 2020). Weinberg, Justin (ed.). "GPT-3 and General Intelligence". Daily Nous. Philosophers On GPT-3 (updated with replies by GPT-3). Retrieved August 4, 2020.]" - GPT-3.

Shead, Sam (July 23, 2020). "Why everyone is talking about the A.I. text generator released by an Elon Musk-backed lab". CNBC. Retrieved July 31, 2020. Four preprints were released between May 28 and July 22, 2020.

GPT-3 and General Intelligence, by by David Chalmers

"GPT-3 contains no major new technology. It is basically a scaled up version of last year’s GPT-2, which was itself a scaled up version of other language models using deep learning. All are huge artificial neural networks trained on text to predict what the next word in a sequence is likely to be. GPT-3 is merely huger: 100 times larger (98 layers and 175 billion parameters) and trained on much more data (CommonCrawl, a database that contains much of the internet, along with a huge library of books and all of Wikipedia). Nevertheless, GPT-3 is instantly one of the most interesting and important AI systems ever produced. This is not just because of its impressive conversational and writing abilities. It was certainly disconcerting to have GPT-3 produce a plausible-looking interview with me. GPT-3 seems to be closer to passing the Turing test than any other system to date (although “closer” does not mean “close”). But this much is basically an ultra-polished extension of GPT-2, which was already producing impressive conversation, stories, and poetry. More remarkably, GPT-3 is showing hints of general intelligence. Previous AI systems have performed well in specialized domains such as game-playing, but cross-domain general intelligence has seemed far off. GPT-3 shows impressive abilities across many domains. It can learn to perform tasks on the fly from a few examples, when nothing was explicitly programmed in. It can play chess and Go, albeit not especially well. Significantly, it can write its own computer programs given a few informal instructions. It can even design machine learning models. Thankfully they are not as powerful as GPT-3 itself (the singularity is not here yet). When I was a graduate student in Douglas Hofstadter’s AI lab, we used letterstring analogy puzzles (if abc goes to abd, what does iijjkk go to?) as a testbed for intelligence. .....

 

Analogy as the Core of Cognition, by Douglas Hofstadter ,2009

My fellow student Melanie Mitchell devised a program, Copycat, that was quite good at solving these puzzles. Copycat took years to write. Now Mitchell has tested GPT-3 on the same puzzles, and has found that it does a reasonable job on them (e.g. giving the answer iijjll). It is not perfect by any means and not as good as Copycat, but its results are still remarkable in a program with no fine-tuning for this domain. What fascinates me about GPT-3 is that it suggests a potential mindless path to artificial general intelligence (or AGI). GPT-3’s training is mindless. It is just analyzing statistics of language. But to do this really well, some capacities of general intelligence are needed, and GPT-3 develops glimmers of them. It has many limitations and its work is full of glitches and mistakes. But the point is not so much GPT-3 but where it is going. Given the progress from GPT-2 to GPT-3, who knows what we can expect from GPT-4 and beyond? Given this peak of inflated expectations, we can expect a trough of disillusionment to follow. There are surely many principled limitations on what language models can do, for example involving perception and action. Still, it may be possible to couple these models to mechanisms that overcome those limitations. There is a clear path to explore where ten years ago, there was not. Human-level AGI is still probably decades away, but the timelines are shortening. GPT-3 raises many philosophical questions. Some are ethical. Should we develop and deploy GPT-3, given that it has many biases from its training, it may displace human workers, it can be used for deception, and it could lead to AGI? I’ll focus on some issues in the philosophy of mind. Is GPT-3 really intelligent, and in what sense? Is it conscious? Is it an agent? Does it understand? There is no easy answer to these questions, which require serious analysis of GPT-3 and serious analysis of what intelligence and the other notions amount to. On a first pass, I am most inclined to give a positive answer to the first. GPT-3’s capacities suggest at least a weak form of intelligence, at least if intelligence is measured by behavioral response. As for consciousness, I am open to the idea that a worm with 302 neurons is conscious, so I am open to the idea that GPT-3 with 175 billion parameters is conscious too. I would expect any consciousness to be far simpler than ours, but much depends on just what sort of processing is going on among those 175 billion parameters. GPT-3 does not look much like an agent. It does not seem to have goals or preferences beyond completing text, for example. It is more like a chameleon that can take the shape of many different agents. Or perhaps it is an engine that can be used under the hood to drive many agents. But it is then perhaps these systems that we should assess for agency, consciousness, and so on. The big question is understanding. Even if one is open to AI systems understanding in general, obstacles arise in GPT-3’s case. It does many things that would require understanding in humans, but it never really connects its words to perception and action. Can a disembodied purely verbal system truly be said to understand? Can it really understand happiness and anger just by making statistical connections? Or is it just making connections among symbols that it does not understand? I suspect GPT-3 and its successors will force us to fragment and re-engineer our concepts of understanding to answer these questions. The same goes for the other concepts at issue here. As AI advances, much will fragment by the end of the day. Both intellectually and practically, we need to handle it with care." - GPT-3 and General Intelligence, by by David Chalmers

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